FIFA 12 Ultimate Team [1.Post lesen] [Spams bitte melden!]

[Fr33Styler]

Wer spielt alles MW3 ?

 

ich ;)! 1.74 KD -_- Scho seit 3 wochen nimmer gepsielt

[-D4rk-x3]

Hier, aber auf PC

 

welches prestige bin auch pc zocker habe 11 prestige angefangen *-*

 

ich ;)! 1.74 KD -_- Scho seit 3 wochen nimmer gepsielt

 

welches prestige ?

[Fr33Styler]

welches prestige bin auch pc zocker habe 11 prestige angefangen *-*

 

 

 

welches prestige ?

 

Ja Prestige 2 Level 76 weil ich scho 3 wochen net zock... könnte locker Prestige 5 oder gar 6 sein.. Aber Fifa 12 bockt sich einfach mehr!

[-D4rk-x3]

Ja Prestige 2 Level 76 weil ich scho 3 wochen net zock... könnte locker Prestige 5 oder gar 6 sein.. Aber Fifa 12 bockt sich einfach mehr!

kenn ich naja mädelzund jungez hau mich ma hin bb

[Simy_Dude]

Ja Prestige 2 Level 76 weil ich scho 3 wochen net zock... könnte locker Prestige 5 oder gar 6 sein.. Aber Fifa 12 bockt sich einfach mehr!

 

Wenn du mal bock hast können wir ja mal zusammen zocken Naja ich geh auch off wir sehen und Leute bb

[Dorfgastein]

welches prestige bin auch pc zocker habe 11 prestige angefangen *-*

 

Hab gestern angefangen und gerade mal 1,5 Std. gespielt. Ich werde noch nicht Prestige sein ?!

[Gast]

hatte ich ja für 480k...

und dann war es mir zuviel.... tag später hab ich ihn für 650k verkauft jetzt warte ich einfach dass er billiger wird der es kommt irgendwann mal ein SIF

 

also hast einen guten gewinn gemacht!!

[DasKeksmonster]

http://www.futhead.com/12/squad/33009

 

hier

[Fr33Styler]

kenn ich naja mädelzund jungez hau mich ma hin bb

 

ich bin eine Woche lang krank geschrieben ! Also bis Freitag und dann habn wir nochmal 1 woche Ferien!! Wuhu!

 

Ahja hab gestern von so einem in Facebook ein Coin Guide bekommen... Falls jemand Interessiert ist -> Spoiler öffnen ;D (ist seeehr lang)

 

 

Watch 3-5 Players

 

Find 3-5 players that you particularly want to watch and add 10-15 of them to your watch list. After all the auctions have finished come back and look at the average price that they have sold for. This will give you the market price at that particular time, and so when selling place your BIN slightly above this price, which was almost always guarantee you a sale. This will also make you an expert in the pricing of this player, meaning you will always be able to spot a good deal on the UT marketplace. To buy, search for the lowest BIN price of these players, and then place them with a start price lower than the average market price, and a BIN now just above the average. Repeatedly do this, and there is a profit potential of 20-30k in 1 night. Be careful though because due to market fluctuations price can go up and down, and so check the average market price every 2-3 days to make sure that you can continually make profit. Example We have 33000 coins, and buy 3 LB Clichy’s at 9200 BIN (absolute bargain), 9600 and 10200 via bids. The average market price of a Clichy at this time was around 12000, so we put our cards up at 10000 start price and 12200 BIN, leaving a 5200 profit after an hour and a half of trading.

 

Find the “It Card”

 

The “IT” card is the one card that you will always be able to sell for a decent profit margin. Everybody has their own “IT” card which they will constantly trade in, to make money. This technique particularly works with lower value cards, as there will be more of the card on the market, meaning you can buy a higher volume of the card, and the tax is generally less than 200 coins, meaning big relative profits are available. By researching the market and finding your “IT” card you could make a good start with Ultimate Team, which will help you towards making your first 50k. Example In Fifa 11 Ultimate Team my “IT” card was Paul Scholes CM, who would always sell for 1800 BIN, and yet you could very regularly get him via bids between 1000-1200 coins, leaving a 510-710 coin profit, or 30-40% profit margin, on a single card, a huge profit margin. We traded this regularly making our way up to around 50,000 before going on other money making ventures. Don’t forget the “IT” card is the 1 card which will always guarantee you profit and isn’t really affected by market fluctuations.

 

 

Pump and Dump

 

This is a relatively well known method to make coins, and works particularly well if you have a lot of coins. This is where you buy up as many of one single player under a certain price that you can afford, and wait. By having say 20 of that player in your trade pile, there will be a market shortage on the Fifa UT marketplace, and so as a result, due to the simple laws of supply and demand, where as the supply decreases and the demand stays the same, prices will increase, leading to an increased

 

price on the UT marketplace. Then when the price has increased release the cards slowly onto the market, which could bring huge profit potential –10k to 1 million depending on the cards you have bought and how many you bought. The temptation for players is to offload all their players at the higher price, but as a result the supply will be there again, and therefore you should offload your players 1 at a time once every hour, until you have sold all your players. This method works particularly well with higher valued players, as there are fewer in the market anyway, and TOTW players, as fewer IF Robben’s for example will be released by EA. Players will be wanting these high valued/rarer IF players for their Ultimate Teams now, and so will not want to have to wait around hours for the next good deal to come along. Therefore they would be willing to pay the higher price for the player, as a result of you taking some out of the market, leading to huge profits for you. This has the potential to make anywhere from 2k/card to 100k/card if you took 5 Messi’s out of a market when there were only 10 selling. This method is different from “price-fixing” which I know many people hate, as you are not trying to increase the price by only offering cards at a higher price, but waiting for the natural flow of the market to increase the prices.

 

Improving the card

 

This isn’t a greatly known method but can increase your profits by a couple of thousand a card. By buying up a card with fewer contracts, in a less popular formation, such as 5-2-2-1, we can make a good profit by making the card to what the buyer wants. By changing the card to a popular formation 4-3-3/4-1-2-1-2/4-4-2, increasing the contracts to more than the norm of 7, and buying player attributes for the player we can greatly increase the potential profit as the buyer can slot this card straight into his team, without having to do anything. The player attributes will also help make the card stand out, and so you will get more views on the card. The potential profit here is high, as again people who are simply building their team will not care as much about getting a good deal, but finding exactly the right card to slot into their team immediately. However, formation cards have increased in price recently with a 4-3-3 card currently retailing at 6-7k so this method is only viable for players with a market value over 50k. Example We buy a CM Modric, formation 5-2-1-2, with 0 contracts remaining for 59k via bid. We add 33 contracts for 400 coins, change it to 4-3-3 for 7200 coins and add player attributes for just 150, and put it back on the market for 72k start, 75k BIN, after 34 minutes it sells leading to a profit of around 5k after tax. This method will take a quite a long time but will generally always make profit of around 1-10k/card depending on which card you buy.

 

 

 

The changing positions method.

 

This is a fairly underground method, with not many people using it from what I’m aware. Many players will be able to play in 2-3 different positions, e.g CDM, CM or CAM, with some positions being more valuable than others on the UT marketplace. By changing the position of the card using a position card, you can increase the value of your card and make a 1-10k profit on that single card alone. General rules are that, CF’s are less valuable than Strikers, as less formations use them. Midfielders who lack pace will be more valuable as a CM than a CAM, defenders who have pace will be more valuable as a RWB/LWB than a RB/LB, and LM/RM are more valuable than LW/RW. Current trading conditions mean that the best cards to pick up are LWB/RWB to LB/RB and vice versa, which only cost around 400 coins BIN, whilst CF-ST cards and CAM – CM are the most valuable position cards as these are the most well known changes in position. Always check both types of the same player to check which is more valuable before changing the player’s position. Example I buy a Glen Johnson RB for 5500 bid on the open market, and RB-RWB for 400 BIN, and then put the RWB Johnson on the market for 9300 BIN, which sells and leaves me a profit of around 3k after tax. This is perhaps one of the most under-used yet largest profit gainers on UT.

 

 

 

The New Player’s Method

 

This is a method which I have seen rarely on Youtube videos, and yet has the potential for 50k profits. Every TOTW that comes out will bring new players which have never before entered the marketplace on UT. Therefore, during the first few days, no one will know the true market price of these players, and so there can be huge differences between the BIN’s and the actual prices that they are selling for. By buying at the lowest price BIN possible, you could make up to 50k profit on a single player due to market instability, and people not knowing how much to really pay for the player, by selling via bid, and having a higher start price than the price you paid for the player.

 

 

 

Very Well Known Profit Making Methods

 

Using Players 59th minute method – this became very well known in Fifa 11, and is the basis of most Youtube videos, despite people saying they have found the newest and best way to make money on Ultimate Team. By setting your league, i.e The Premier League, and your maximum BIN price, you could scroll through all the pages until you reach the 59th minute, and wait around until you find a good deal. Admittedly this does work, for example I managed to find a Clichy for just 1900 BIN, a 10000 profit, but this method is so well known, that you will find so many people doing it, that you will have to find the bargain within the first 15 seconds of it being put live on the marketplace to be able to buy it. Also, you may spend ages searching through the markets, and so in my opinion there are better methods for trading Buy Gold players – then discard. Another very well known method which is used by quite a few people. By bidding 250 coins on a 75-76 rated gold player, and 600 coins on a lower rated shiny gold player, you can make more money by discarding the players. I.E a 75 gold will discard for 300 coins, 76 for 304 coins. This method again will work, but bring small profits and again is very time consuming, as you have to wait until the end of the auction, and bid way before the end to get the gold player for 250 coins. As you are only making 50 coins/cards you would have to buy 100 cards just to make 5k, and again in my opinion there is better use of time than this method.

 

Simply buying and selling! – If you are a regular/professional trader on the UT marketplace you know what a good buy is and what isn’t. By simply flitting through the pages on auction you can sometimes find a good deal and make up to 5k out of it depending on which card it is. However, there is no secret method that will suddenly get you 500k in 1 hour through buying and selling, so don’t be fooled into thinking you are missing out on something. Buy cheaply/sell higher on Premier League/Liga BBVA players. This works particularly well with these leagues as they are more popular. Try and buy gold players for around 350-400 coins, which will almost always sell for 600-700 BIN, as they are more popular, especially if they are from the more popular countries such as England/Spain. This is particularly useful for those who are just starting playing UT, as it promises good relative profit margins, and a few hundred coin profit to help you start off. What makes a player sell. 1. Pace and Dribbling – These are the two most important stats overall for an ultimate team card on the UT marketplace. Any player with higher pace and dribbling, but the same rating overall, as another player in the same position, will always sell much better. E.G Theo Walcott, rated 82, but with 96 pace, will always sell over 10,000 and I’ve even seen him, sell for over 20k twice. 2. Liga BBVA and Premier League – This are the 2 top leagues for Ultimate Team Players, followed by a second tier of Ligue 1, Serie A and Bundesliga, because they have most of the world’s best players in them . Therefore prices will be higher in these leagues, players will sell well, and so I recommend you buy mainly from these leagues, as the potential profit is much greater than in other leagues. 3. Formation – Players with the 3 best formations 4-1-2-1-2/4-4-2/4-3-3 will generally sell for higher prices than players in other formations. Therefore search for BIN’s which are the same as the other, lesser demanded formations are selling for on any player, and there is a greater potential for profit, as 4-1-2-1-2 cards generally sell for around 25% more than the average selling price, and 4-4-2 around 20%. Therefore by buying cards with these formations, that people do not realise are more valuable you can increase your profits by thousands of coins. 4. Country – Many Players try and get 100 chemistry so that a 3 star team could beat 4-4.5 star team quite easily. Therefore players from obscure countries will sell less well, especially if a player is trying to make an England team/Spain team and so the potential for profit is less with players from less popular/more obscure countries.

 

 

 

Underground of the Underground – Very Obscure Methods that Few People Know About.

 

The 7pm Phenomenon I have never seen this on the internet, and so this is one of the things you are really getting from this guide. Around 7pm GMT, the market seems to dip slightly with some players losing up to 1-2k off the value of their card. This could be because the supply is there, due to players putting up their cards for an hour at 6pm, whilst the demand isn’t, maybe because British players are eating dinner/doing Homework, whilst American Players are in school. Anyway, during this time there are usually good bargains to be found, which can then be sold 1-2 hours later when the market has recovered due to an influx of players from both Europe and America, leading to a 1-2k profit/card. This, in my opinion is a good method, as it offers profit and is not very time consuming compared to some of the more well known methods. 4-3-3 CDM’s. In the 4-3-3 formation there is no CDM, and so CDM’s which are in a 4-3-3 formation are worthless to players who are trying to build their time, leading to lower prices for these cards, as no one trying to build a team, and not caring about prices will ignore these cards. Therefore there is decent profit to be made here, even if you change the card to an inferior formation with a CDM, such as 5-3-2, because people can buy the card and immediately slot it into their team, unlike if the CDM was in 4-3-3 formation. That’s all the tips for making money out of players really. Everyone will have their own way which they believe works, but which really is the old phrase “buy low, sell high” which does not work all the time. Therefore, you should use some of the methods described above, and you will be well on your way to making 1 million coins.

 

 

 

How To Buy and Sell Buying Strategy This buying strategy has worked for me, and has allowed me to get some really good buys. There are 8 main points to the buying strategy.

 

1. Place your first bid on the item when the auction had 15 seconds left. This is the last point in which the auction will not increase in time, and so by bidding with 15 seconds you can get your bid in for the item, and will not increase the auction length.

 

2. Secondly, if you get out-bid on the item, immediately bid back, even if the bid is close to your maximum price that you will pay for the item. This will give the impression to the other bidder that you are serious about buying the item, and will not give up. Continually bid back as soon as they have bid, and so after a while the other player will hopefully give up, leaving you with a bargain, after implementing your aggressive bidding strategy.

 

3. Always have a maximum price that you will pay for the item. Go any higher than this and you are eating into your potential profit.

 

4. Try and avoid buying players which have had a starting price of 150 coins, for two reasons. Firstly, by starting it at 150 coins, the seller is looking to get a lot of interest in his/her item, as many people will bid on the item, thinking they will get a good deal in the end. In reality, this is the not the case, as many players will see that the auction has a low price going into the last 15 seconds, leading to a frenzy of bids in the last few seconds of the auction, and an eventual end price, which is usually not a bargain and above the average market price. E.G an Ashley Cole goes into the last 15 seconds of the auction with a price of 8600, with 5 people bidding on him, leading to an eventual final price of 24750, above the average market price.

 

5. Never bid at the last second of the auction. This is likely to wind the other bidders up, and makes them want to win their “bargain” even more; meaning the chance of you winning the auction at a lesser price is smaller.

 

6. If there are 2 cards in a row that both have low start prices, (ideally 150) then add both of them to your watch list but concentrate on the second one. Players are most likely to focus on the first one, meaning there will be less people bidding on the second card in the row and it therefore it will be likely to go for a smaller price, meaning there is a greater profit potential on the card. This works even better when there are 3 or more cards in a row.

 

7. Sometimes, when in a bidding war, bid 2/3 times in a row on the same card. This gives the impression to the other bidder that there are 2/3 other bidders trying to get this card, and may deter them from bidding, as it could make them believe that they wouldn’t get the card for a good price, meaning you get it at a good bargain, leading to a large potential profit.

 

8. When you are the first bidder in the auction, bid a couple of hundred over the start price of the auction. This would give the impression to other bidders that there has already been a couple of bids on the auction, and that therefore the card would be in a couple of people’s watch-list, which could deter them from bidding, as again they could believe that they wouldn’t get the card at a bargain price.

 

 

 

[Fr33Styler]

Hier der Rest:

 

 

 

 

Selling Strategy

 

These are in essence the opposite of the buying strategy, and comprise of 4 main parts. 1. Always start with a low start price, if you want to 150 coins. This will encourage lots of bidders to look at your card and add it to their watch-list. As a result, during the last minutes of the auction, there will be a frenzy of bids, as many bidders believe they will be getting a bargain, leading to generally a higher finishing price than the average market price, and therefore a higher profit. 2. If you would like to sell via BIN, then research all the BIN’s. If all the BIN’s are above the average price, then come in lower than them. People will believe they are getting a good deal, which they are in comparison to the other BIN’s. But in reality they are still paying more than the average price, and you are making a healthy profit if you bought your card relatively cheaply. 3. Try and enter the market behind a set of cards in which the prices are massively high, and you know will not sell. This is a proven method to sell your card at a higher price, as bidders, pissed off at the fact there are no decently priced cards around for a while, and will therefore flood to the first well priced card. I.E yours. As a result there will be increased interest/demand in your card, leading to a higher sale price and therefore more profit. 4. Never put the start price as the average price. This will attract at most 1/2 bidders, leading to a lower finishing price, as the auction will be won on just 1/2 bids, leaving you with less profit. A card with a start price of the average price is a buyers dream. Consumable Contracts Contracts were a very popular method of making money in Fifa 11 where gold premium contracts could sell for up to 800 coins. However, this year, due to there being so many people playing UT, and there being a large supply of contracts in the marketplace, contract prices have plummeted, leading to at most a 300 BIN. Therefore, being a contract “drug dealer” this year is not the best way to make money, as you would be making at most 50-100 coins/card, and using up a lot of time to sell the cards, as all the contracts are unlikely to sell in the first hour, unless you put them up at 150 start 200 BIN Healing Healing cards were again a good underground method of making money, as bronze healing cards sold for up to 600 coins, and gold cards up to 1200 coins in the Fifa 11 marketplace. Again, like contracts the price has gone down, but unlike contracts the price is increasing. Therefore healing cards are a good long term investment, as they are likely to rise in the future, with bronze cards going for around 200 BIN, and gold 500 BIN at the moment. Fitness, Player Attributes etc In my opinion these are bad investments in Fifa 12, as they rarely go for more than 150 coins. People only generally buys these cards when their players need a boost in attributes, or when their players are down in fitness, meaning there is very little money to be made in this section of Ultimate Team I rarely trade in Kits/Badges/Stadiums/Balls and Staff so if anyone would like to contribute to the guide by writing a bit about them in the forum, then please do. Other ways of making money on Ultimate Team Packs The infamous bronze, silver and gold packs, where there is a chance of getting a million coin player, but a very small chance, about 0.01% according to latest statistics, meaning you would have to buy 10,000 packs to guarantee yourself an amazing player. Many players have wasted thousands of coins/MS/money on packs, and never got anyone. However, in some cases there are ways to maximise the pack potential. Bronze Packs The Bronze pack method is quite a well known method within the realm of Ultimate Team, but can bring you 300-400 coins profit. The Bronze Pack Method involves buying a 400 coin bronze pack, and then sending all the players, contracts, fitness and healing cards to your trade pile to sell for 150 coins. This works quite well, especially when you get a healing card, which can sell for 200-250 coins, leading to overall sales of around 750-900 coins depending on what/who you get in a pack. Healing cards are on average in 1 in every 3 pack, so the chances of making a decent relative profit with this method are quite high. However, this method is quite time consuming, as you could go for days without selling anything, meaning that this method is only suitable for those who are patient, and willing to wait some time for profit. Silver Packs These have a potential profit of between 0-50k coins, depending on who/what you get in the pack. These packs have probably the least chance of making any profit, as only a few 74 rated silver players will sell for more than 1k coins, and so with the packs priced at 2500 and 3750 coins, you would have to get a fairly rare 73-74 rated silver player to make any profit at all, as silver contracts, fitness etc only sell for around 200-250 BIN. Gold Packs These have the biggest potential for profit from 1k – 2million coins, depending on which cards you get. If you pull a Messi/Ronaldo/Rooney, then the potential profit can run into hundreds of thousands of coins. However, I would only recommend this method if you have thousands of coins to spend, or MS points, as the potential loss is huge. Most players that you will get will only discard for 300-350 coins, whilst contracts, player attributes, fitness etc will only sell for 150-300 BIN, meaning each gold pack is on average worth 1500-2k coins, and a potential loss of 3k -4.5k depending on whether you buy a premium gold pack/normal gold pack. There are also special packs, during happy hour (Friday 5-6 GMT.) These can range from premium gold jumbo packs, which are essentially just 2 premium gold packs for 15,000 to player packs for 12,500 – 25,000. This is probably the best time to buy packs, if any because the chances of getting an IF player from TOTW is 3 times higher, and so there is a 3 times chance of making a big profit of around 50k. What time should I buy the cards? The profit potential is greatly increased depending on the time in which you buy the cards. Cards are at their most expensive, during the period 4pm – 4am British time, as this is when the majority of players are online, and therefore there is the most demand for the cards. To get a good deal, you should attempt to buy early in the morning, or around 8am, when there are fewer people online, and therefore less demand for the cards. There are also some anomalies. Prices seem to dip due to the 7pm phenomenon, (described above), and on Saturdays around 10am – 2pm, whilst on Sunday afternoons the prices seem to be especially high. Therefore to make 1-2k per card all you need to do is buy and sell at the right time, which therefore could bring very large profits, for relatively little effort. Example We stay up until 1 am British time, and then start scrolling through the Markets, where it is clear less players are on, the demand is less and therefore prices are lower. As a result we find a Clichy for 2100 BIN, which when the markets recover due to more players being online, we could sell for 9000 leading to an approximate 6.5k profit after tax. Ebay/Giveaways Some other ways of making money are from Ebay/Giveaways. On Ebay currently, coins are trading at around £12/100k. This is a good way of making money, as coins are very cheap for the amount you are getting, whilst this is a much quicker way of making money than simply playing matches/trading. On average you can make 700 coins/game or 3000 coins/hour from playing matches and 5000/hour from trading if you’re not a professional trader. Therefore, it would take you over 12 hours of solid playing to make 100k, and so you are valuing your time at just £1/hour by not buying 100k coins off Ebay. Giveaways – Some generous players offer giveaways, whereby you buy tickets, or bronze players for 2-5k, and once they have sold a certain number, say 30 will offer a rare gold player, usually with a value over 50k as a prize if your ticket is picked. General Selling Tips 1. Always buy in bulk – The potential profit is greater if you buy 10 cards and sell them, than if you buy 1 card and try to make a large profit out of. The market can fluctuate and so you could end up making a loss on that single card, whereas if you had 10 different cards in your trade pile, the profits made on other 9 would counteract the loss made on the card where the price went down. Therefore always buy in bulk, as although the profits made on each single card will be less, the overall profit made due to all the cards, will be greater than the profit made off 1 high value card. Example We Buy an Ashley Cole LB, Jack Wilshere CM, Hernandez ST, Clichy LB and Modric CAM for a total of 102k, and sell on to make 115k, an 8k profit after tax. We could’ve bought an Aguero and made 5k profit. Therefore it is better to buy in bulk, than using all your money on a single player, as the profit returns will be much higher. When you have bought a card later at night, but before the prices start to go down, always put the card up for a minimum of 12 hours. This therefore means that the auction will be ending when the prices have gone back up again, after the overnight drop, and so you will be getting a better price for your player than if you put it up for 1/3 hours, and the auction is ending in the small hours of the morning. Things to avoid on Ultimate Team · There are 1 or 2 things you should definitely avoid on Ultimate Team Buying Without knowing the Average Price of the Player · If you want to make a million coins on UT, then this is something you should definitely avoid, the “cardinal sin” among UT traders. By bidding randomly on a card which you don’t know the price of on the open market, it could lead to having huge losses, up to 10k/card, and hampering significantly your attempt to make a million. Only buy if you have seen a few of that card sell, and know the price which sells, and what doesn’t. Example · We are at the 59th minute of Forwards, premier league, BIN 20-30k, see a Mata going for 30k BIN, and impulse buy him. This was a huge mistake, as the average market price of a Mata at the time was just 21k BIN, and so we eventually made a 8k loss on a single card, after eventually selling him for 22k BIN two days later, which essentially wiped out almost half the profit already made that day. General Selling Tips 2. Always buy in bulk – The potential profit is greater if you buy 10 cards and sell them, than if you buy 1 card and try to make a large profit out of. The market can fluctuate and so you could end up making a loss on that single card, whereas if you had 10 different cards in your trade pile, the profits made on other 9 would counteract the loss made on the card where the price went down. Therefore always buy in bulk, as although the profits made on each single card will be less, the overall profit made due to all the cards, will be greater than the profit made off 1 high value card. Example We Buy an Ashley Cole LB, Jack Wilshere CM, Hernandez ST, Clichy LB and Modric CAM for a total of 102k, and sell on to make 115k, an 8k profit after tax. We could’ve bought an Aguero and made 5k profit. Therefore it is better to buy in bulk, than using all your money on a single player, as the profit returns will be much higher. 3. When you have bought a card later at night, but before the prices start to go down, always put the card up for a minimum of 12 hours. This therefore means that the auction will be ending when the prices have gone back up again, after the overnight drop, and so you will be getting a better price for your player than if you put it up for 1/3 hours, and the auction is ending in the small hours of the morning. You will find many methods on Youtube claiming to have worked but these are just ways that have worked for the person filming, or they may have got lucky with a certain card.